Leylah Fernandez vs Sofia Kenin — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 32
Why
Surface+126 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fernandez L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1805Supports Fernandez L.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Head-to-headTrails 0–2 on hardInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Kenin S.
ELO1 973
Hard ELO1 875
Last 108–2
Age24
Height168 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $9.2M2026 $1.8M
ELO1 760
Hard ELO1 636
Last 102–8
Age27
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $12.8M2026 $1.1M
Leylah Fernandez faces Sofia Kenin in the Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong round of 32 on hard. Leylah Fernandez is the paper favourite — ranked #18, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage — but Sofia Kenin has won both their previous meetings.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Leylah Fernandez 215 games in 14 days, Sofia Kenin 50.
- Under pressure: Leylah Fernandez has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 84 vs Sofia Kenin's 43).
- Surface form: Leylah Fernandez 8 of 10, Sofia Kenin 2 of 10 on hard recently — Leylah Fernandez the sharper of late.
Common opponents
7 shared · last 12 monthsFernandez L. and Kenin S. faced 7 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fernandez L. went 6–4 (60%) against them, Kenin S. 0–7 (0%). Fernandez L. came out clearly better against 5 of 7 comparable opponents, Kenin S. against 0.
6–460%Fernandez L. · better vs 5Record vs common opponents0–70%Kenin S. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
15–13Sets2–14
138–128Games52–89
1–1Tiebreaks0–1
5–3Deciding sets0–2
vs Pegula J.#5L6-1 4-6 3-6US Open · hardL3-6 1-6US Open · hard- vs Jovic I.#13W3-6 6-3 6-2Madrid · clayL5-7 5-7Charleston · clay
vs Alexandrova E.#32W6-4 3-6 6-3Wuhan · hardL6-7 3-6Brisbane · hard
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- vs Samsonova L.#40W5-7 7-5 6-3Dubai · hardL4-6 0-6Abu Dhabi · hard
vs Rakhimova K.#44L2-6 6-4 3-6Beijing · hardL0-6 3-6Wuhan · hard
vs Siniakova K.#47L7-5 4-6 6-7Indian Wells · hardL6-1 4-6 1-6Indian Wells · hard- vs Selekhmeteva O.#122W7-6 3-6 6-1Miami · hardL6-1 4-6 1-6Strasbourg · clay
Head-to-head
2 meetings · Kenin S. leads 2–002
- Kenin S.September 2023GuadalajaraHard6-4 6-7 6-1
- Kenin S.August 2020US OpenHard6-4 6-3
Evidence
Fernandez L.Kenin S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)2–8
Season win rate52% (32–29) (ahead)23% (8–27)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1973 (ahead)1760
Hard-court ELO1875 (ahead)1636
Serve vs returnLast 58 vs 35 matches
1st-serve points won65% (ahead)62%
Return points won42% (ahead)39%
Aces / match2.7 (ahead)1.7
ClutchLast 58 vs 35 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)50%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Leylah Fernandez vs Sofia Kenin — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-03/fernandez-vs-kenin-hong-kong-tennis-open-hong-kong-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 3 November 2026).