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Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR64HardTue 3 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Djokovic N.
67%33%

Clear edge for Djokovic N. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Djokovic N.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Vacherot V.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+170 Hard Elo edgeSupports Djokovic N.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2059Supports Djokovic N.
Recent run5-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Vacherot V.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Vacherot V.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Djokovic N.
ELO2 264
Hard ELO2 142
Last 106–4
Age39
Height188 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $194.7M2026 $3.0M
ELO2 050
Hard ELO1 885
Last 107–3
Age27
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $3.7M2026 $1.1M

Novak Djokovic faces Valentin Vacherot in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 64 on hard. Novak Djokovic is the paper favourite — ranked #11, a roughly 170-point hard Elo advantage — but Valentin Vacherot has won their only previous meeting. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

9 shared · last 12 months

Djokovic N. and Vacherot V. faced 9 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Djokovic N. went 6–3 (67%) against them, Vacherot V. 9–2 (82%). Results against comparable opponents are close (0 : 1 better-results split).

6–367%Djokovic N. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents9–282%Vacherot V. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
14–13Sets21–8
122–122Games165–133
2–1Tiebreaks4–1
2–1Deciding sets3–1
Show 6 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Vacherot V. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Djokovic N.Vacherot V.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–47–3 (ahead)
Season win rate71% (22–9) (ahead)61% (28–18)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2264 (ahead)2050
Hard-court ELO2142 (ahead)1885
Serve vs returnLast 30 vs 43 matches
1st-serve points won75%76% (ahead)
Return points won35% (ahead)34%
Aces / match8.410.5 (ahead)
ClutchLast 30 vs 43 matches
Break points saved72% (ahead)66%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast8°C · Overcast
Wind12 km/h
Humidity83%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Djokovic N.Vacherot V.
4 — fresherDays since last match1
2 — fresherMatches · 7 days5
67 — fresherGames · 7 days131
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days6
67 — fresherGames · 14 days159
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Novak Djokovic vs Valentin Vacherot — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-03/djokovic-vs-vacherot-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 3 November 2026).