Mattia Bellucci vs Lorenzo Sonego | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR64HardMon 2 Nov · 15:30

Mattia BellucciATP #66 · ITA57%

VSToss-up

Lorenzo SonegoATP #91 · ITA43%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Bellucci M.5.5/10

Slight disadvantage

Sonego L.4.8/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+24 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Sonego L.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1720Informative

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Bellucci M.

Recent run2-match win streakBoth players

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

ELO1 901

Hard ELO1 763

Last 108–2

Age25

Height175 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.6M2026 $662K

ELO1 892

Hard ELO1 766

Last 104–6

Age31

Height191 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $10.3M2026 $981K

Mattia Bellucci faces Lorenzo Sonego in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 64 on hard. Mattia Bellucci holds the paper edge — ranked #66, leading the head-to-head 1–0.

Key context

Serve & return: Lorenzo Sonego leads on Serve Rating (49), Mattia Bellucci on Return Rating (18).
Fatigue load: Lorenzo Sonego carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
Surface form: Mattia Bellucci 7 of 8, Lorenzo Sonego 4 of 8 on hard recently — Mattia Bellucci the sharper of late.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Bellucci M. and Sonego L. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Bellucci M. went 2–5 (29%) against them, Sonego L. 2–3 (40%). Results against comparable opponents are close (0 : 1 better-results split).

2–529%Bellucci M. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents2–340%Sonego L. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

6–13Sets7–10

81–106Games93–98

1–1Tiebreaks3–5

2–2Deciding sets1–0

vs Fritz T.#13L7-5 5-7 5-7Stuttgart · grassL6-4 3-6 4-6 6-7Wimbledon · grass
vs Etcheverry T.#29W5-7 6-2 6-3Rome Masters · clayW6-4 6-4 6-7 7-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Collignon R.#55L6-4 4-6 3-6Halle · grassL6-7(2) 6-7(5)Gstaad · clay

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vs Majchrzak K.#82L3-6 4-6Hangzhou · hardL5-7 2-6Tokyo · hard
vs Diallo G.#149L6-7 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hardW7-6 4-6 7-6 6-7 6-2Wimbledon · grass

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Bellucci M. leads 1–0

Bellucci M.April 2026Cagliari CHClay6-4 1-6 7-5

Evidence

Bellucci M.Sonego L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–24–6

Season win rate59% (41–29)42% (16–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19011892

Hard-court ELO17631766

Serve vs returnLast 65 vs 38 matches

1st-serve points won73%73%

Return points won36%34%

Aces / match6.78.1

ClutchLast 65 vs 38 matches

Break points saved65%62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

15:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast11°C · Rain

Wind11 km/h

Humidity79%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Bellucci M.Sonego L.

1Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days2

20Games · 7 days62

4Matches · 14 days4

117Games · 14 days111

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Mattia Bellucci vs Lorenzo Sonego — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/bellucci-vs-sonego-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).