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Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti — Vienna Round of 16

ViennaR16HardThu 29 Oct · 17:00
VSClear favourite · Musetti L.
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Musetti L.
31%69%

Clear edge for Musetti L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Fery A.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Musetti L.6.5/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+119 Hard Elo edgeSupports Musetti L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1869Supports Musetti L.
Recent run6-match win streakSupports Musetti L.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Musetti L.
This eventReached the semis here last yearSupports Musetti L.
ELO1 949
Hard ELO1 776
Last 105–5
Age24
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.2M2026 $1.7M
ELO2 091
Hard ELO1 883
Last 107–3
Age24
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.6M2026 $1.3M

Arthur Fery faces Lorenzo Musetti in the Vienna round of 16 on hard. Lorenzo Musetti is the paper favourite — ranked #26, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's semi-final — but Arthur Fery arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 5 on hard to Lorenzo Musetti's 2 of 5.

Key context

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Fery A. and Musetti L. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fery A. went 0–3 (0%) against them, Musetti L. 3–0 (100%). Musetti L. came out better against 3 of 3 comparable opponents, Fery A. against 0.

0–30%Fery A. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents3–0100%Musetti L. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–5Sets6–1
35–38Games43–33
0–1Tiebreaks1–0
0–1Deciding sets1–0

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Musetti L. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Fery A.Musetti L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate63% (34–20)68% (26–12) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19492091 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17761883 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 38 matches
1st-serve points won69%71% (ahead)
Return points won39%39%
Aces / match3.94.1 (ahead)
ClutchLast 50 vs 38 matches
Break points saved61%66% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast12°C · Overcast
Wind10 km/h
Humidity73%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Fery A.Musetti L.
2Days since last match3 — fresher
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days4
6 — fresherGames · 7 days105
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days5
28 — fresherGames · 14 days122
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Arthur Fery vs Lorenzo Musetti — Vienna Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/fery-vs-musetti-vienna-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).