Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi | Vienna Round of 16

UMPIRY

ViennaR16HardThu 29 Oct · 10:00

Tommy Paul(7)ATP #14 · USA71%

VSClear favourite · Paul T.

Luciano DarderiATP #23 · ITA29%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Paul T.

71%29%

Clear edge for Paul T. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Paul T.7.4/10

Dominant favourite

Darderi L.5.7/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+203 Hard Elo edgeSupports Paul T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1948Supports Paul T.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Paul T.

This eventReached the R32 here last yearAgainst the prediction · Darderi L.

Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Darderi L.

ELO2 138

Hard ELO1 972

Last 106–4

Age29

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $15.8M2026 $2.9M

ELO1 979

Hard ELO1 713

Last 105–5

Age24

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $5.2M2026 $1.8M

Tommy Paul faces Luciano Darderi in the Vienna round of 16 on hard. Tommy Paul holds the paper edge — ranked #14, a roughly 200-point hard Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Tommy Paul ahead 1–0 on hard.

Key context

Freshness: Tommy Paul comes in with 3 days of rest and 129 games in 14d, vs Luciano Darderi's 1 and 45.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Tommy Paul has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 91 vs 69).
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1, 1–0 on hard. Last met at Rome Masters 2026.

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

Paul T. and Darderi L. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Paul T. went 7–3 (70%) against them, Darderi L. 3–8 (27%). Paul T. came out clearly better against 5 of 8 comparable opponents, Darderi L. against 1.

7–370%Paul T. · better vs 5Record vs common opponents3–827%Darderi L. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

17–11Sets8–19

152–134Games102–148

2–2Tiebreaks2–3

3–1Deciding sets2–2

vs Zverev A.#2W4-6 7-6(6) 6-4Cincinnati · hardL2-6 2-6 6-7(3)US Open · hard
vs Cerundolo F.#19L7-6 4-6 3-6London · grassL2-6 3-6Madrid Masters · clay
vs Rublev A.#22W7-5 6-2Vienna · hardL4-6 3-6Bastad · clay

Show 5 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Ruud C.#25L6-4 4-6 5-7Roland Garros · clayL1-6 1-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Hurkacz H.#28L6-4 6-7 5-7 2-6Wimbledon · grassL6-7 7-5 1-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Van De Zandschulp B.#37W6-3London · grassL1-6 0-6Winston-Salem · hard
vs Vallejo D.#56W3-6 6-3 6-4Cincinnati · hardW6-4 6-7(11) 6-3Bastad · clay
vs Hijikata R.#85W4-6 6-3 7-5 6-4Roland Garros · clayL4-6 2-6Cincinnati · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1

Clay: Darderi L. leads 1–0 · Hard: Paul T. leads 1–0

Darderi L.May 2026Rome MastersClay6-3 3-6 2-6
Paul T.August 2024Canada MastersHard6-4 7-6

Evidence

Paul T.Darderi L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–45–5

Season win rate68% (45–21)58% (37–27)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21381979

Hard-court ELO19721713

Serve vs returnLast 64 vs 60 matches

1st-serve points won74%72%

Return points won38%37%

Aces / match6.86.1

ClutchLast 64 vs 60 matches

Break points saved65%62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast11°C · Overcast

Wind12 km/h

Humidity82%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Paul T.Darderi L.

3Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days2

81Games · 7 days45

5Matches · 14 days2

129Games · 14 days45

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi — Vienna Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/darderi-vs-paul-vienna-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).