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Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 32

Toray Pan Pacific Open - TokyoR32HardTue 27 Oct · 02:00 UTC
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Li A.6.0/10
Even match
Alexandrova E.6.4/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+54 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Alexandrova E.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1844Against the prediction · Alexandrova E.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Alexandrova E.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Alexandrova E.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 967
Hard ELO1 826
Last 107–3
Age26
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $4.6M2026 $1.5M
ELO1 967
Hard ELO1 839
Last 106–4
Age31
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $11.5M2026 $1.8M

Ann Li faces Ekaterina Alexandrova in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo round of 32 on hard. Ekaterina Alexandrova holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 3–1, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

14 shared · last 12 months
All 14 opponents →

Li A. and Alexandrova E. faced 14 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Li A. went 10–12 (45%) against them, Alexandrova E. 9–12 (43%). Results against comparable opponents are close (4 : 4 better-results split).

10–1245%Li A. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents9–1243%Alexandrova E. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
25–30Sets22–27
260–275Games214–236
4–4Tiebreaks3–0
5–6Deciding sets3–5
Show 11 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

4 meetings · Alexandrova E. leads 3–1
Full H2H →
13

Grass: Alexandrova E. leads 1–0 · Clay: level 1–1 · Hard: Alexandrova E. leads 1–0

Evidence

Li A.Alexandrova E.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate56% (33–26) (ahead)47% (23–26)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19671967
Hard-court ELO18261839 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 57 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won69% (ahead)67%
Return points won41%42% (ahead)
Aces / match5.4 (ahead)4.6
ClutchLast 57 vs 47 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)57%

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Li A.Alexandrova E.
1Days since last match2 — fresher
4Matches · 7 days3 — fresher
107Games · 7 days52 — fresher
8Matches · 14 days4 — fresher
186Games · 14 days80 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ann Li vs Ekaterina Alexandrova — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-27/alexandrova-vs-li-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 27 October 2026).