Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger | Japan Open - Osaka Quarter-final

UMPIRY

Japan Open - OsakaQuarter-finalHardFri 23 Oct · 11:30Center · Next on

Ann Li(1)WTA #25 · USA61%

VSSlight edge · Li A.

Lilli TaggerWTA #57 · AUT39%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Li A.

61%39%

Li A. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Li A.5.7/10

Slight disadvantage

Tagger L.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+58 Hard Elo edgeSupports Li A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1806Supports Li A.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Tagger L.

Recent run2-match win streakBoth players

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 972

Hard ELO1 831

Last 107–3

Age26

Height170 cm

EarningsCareer $4.6M2026 $1.5M

ELO1 797

Hard ELO1 707

Last 105–5

Age18

Height185 cm

EarningsCareer $829K2026 $757K

Ann Li faces Lilli Tagger in the Japan Open - Osaka quarter-final on hard. Ann Li holds the paper edge — ranked #25, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Ann Li 122 games in 14 days, Lilli Tagger 67.
Last match: Ann Li dropped just 4 games past Zeynep Sonmez.
Surface form: Ann Li 7 of 10, Lilli Tagger 5 of 10 on hard recently — Ann Li the sharper of late.

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Li A. and Tagger L. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Li A. went 1–7 (13%) against them, Tagger L. 4–3 (57%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 2 better-results split).

1–713%Li A. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents4–357%Tagger L. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

6–15Sets9–7

89–115Games78–73

1–1Tiebreaks1–0

1–4Deciding sets1–1

vs Alexandrova E.#33W4-6 6-4 6-3Strasbourg · clayL3-6 3-6Miami · hard
vs Gibson T.#42L3-6 5-7Indian Wells · hardL6-4 1-6 5-7Cincinnati · hard
vs Samsonova L.#43L4-6 3-6Rome · clayW6-2 7-6Linz · hard

Show 3 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Cocciaretto E.#65L6-1 5-7 5-7Hobart · hardW6-4 6-2Jiujiang · hard
vs Korneeva A.#80L2-6 2-6Athens · hardL3-6 3-6Rome · clay
vs Golubic V.#82Hard to compareL3-6 6-2 3-6Nottingham · grassW6-1 4-6 7-5Jiujiang · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Li A.Tagger L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–35–5

Season win rate56% (32–25)60% (32–21)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19721797

Hard-court ELO18311707

Serve vs returnLast 55 vs 52 matches

1st-serve points won69%67%

Return points won42%43%

Aces / match5.34.3

ClutchLast 55 vs 52 matches

Break points saved60%54%

When it starts

Center · Next on · Starting at 11:30 AM

1This match: Li A. v Tagger L.This match
2Gibson T. v Krueger A.Followed by
3Boulter K. v Ruzic A.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center · 11:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast20°C · Mainly clear

Wind8 km/h

Humidity63%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Li A.Tagger L.

0Days since last match1

4Matches · 7 days2

80Games · 7 days39

6Matches · 14 days3

122Games · 14 days67

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Ann Li vs Lilli Tagger — Japan Open - Osaka Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-23/li-vs-tagger-japan-open-osaka-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 23 October 2026).