Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka | Lyon Round of 16

UMPIRY

LyonR16ClayThu 22 Oct · 19:00COURT CENTRAL AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES · After 2 matches

Flavio Cobolli(1)ATP #6 · ITA88%

VSStrong favourite · Cobolli F.

Stan WawrinkaATP #140 · SUI12%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Cobolli F.

88%12%

Clear edge for Cobolli F. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 8 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Cobolli F.7.0/10

Strong advantage

Wawrinka S.3.9/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+250 Clay Elo edgeSupports Cobolli F.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1896Supports Cobolli F.

Recent runLost last 4Against the prediction · Wawrinka S.

Surface switchHard → ClayAgainst the prediction · Wawrinka S.

Head-to-headFirst meeting on clayBoth players

ELO2 050

Clay ELO1 887

Last 105–5

Age24

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $9.5M2026 $4.2M

ELO1 808

Clay ELO1 697

Last 103–7

Age41

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $38.6M2026 $782K

Flavio Cobolli faces Stan Wawrinka in the Lyon round of 16 on clay. Flavio Cobolli holds the paper edge — ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 250-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Serve & return: Stan Wawrinka brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 37), Flavio Cobolli the stronger return game (Return Rating 36).
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Flavio Cobolli has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 72 vs 52).
Head-to-head: Flavio Cobolli leads the head-to-head 2–0; this is their first meeting on clay. Last met at United Cup 2026.

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Cobolli F. and Wawrinka S. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Cobolli F. went 1–2 (33%) against them, Wawrinka S. 1–2 (33%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 1 better-results split).

1–233%Cobolli F. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents1–233%Wawrinka S. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

3–5Sets4–5

43–48Games45–53

2–2Tiebreaks3–0

1–1Deciding sets1–2

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Bergs Z.#41W6-3 6-7 7-6ITA vs BEL · hardL3-6 7-6 3-6United Cup · hard
vs Rinderknech A.#61L7-6 6-7 5-7United Cup · hardW5-7 7-6 7-6United Cup · hard
vs Burruchaga R.#62L2-6 4-6Umag · clayL4-6 6-4 3-6Estoril · clay

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Cobolli F. leads 2–0

Cobolli F.January 2026United CupHard6-4 6-7 7-6
Cobolli F.October 2024Shanghai MastersHard6-7 7-6 6-3

Evidence

Cobolli F.Wawrinka S.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–53–7

Season win rate60% (34–23)33% (10–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20501808

Clay-court ELO18871697

Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 28 matches

1st-serve points won72%75%

Return points won36%32%

Aces / match6.57.9

ClutchLast 56 vs 28 matches

Break points saved62%61%

When it starts

COURT CENTRAL AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES · After 2 matches · Not before 19:00

1Vacherot V. v van Assche L.Not before 14:00
2Herbert P. v Fritz T.Followed by
3This match: Cobolli F. v Wawrinka S.This match
4Jacquet K. v Nakashima B.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT CENTRAL AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES · 19:00 local

SurfaceClay · medium-slow

Forecast15°C · Overcast

Wind5 km/h

Humidity61%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Flavio Cobolli vs Stan Wawrinka — Lyon Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/cobolli-vs-wawrinka-lyon-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).