Valentin Vacherot vs Luca Van Assche | Lyon Round of 16

UMPIRY

LyonR16ClayThu 22 Oct · 14:00COURT CENTRAL AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES · Next on

Valentin Vacherot(3)ATP #32 · MON59%

VSSlight edge · Vacherot V.

Luca Van AsscheATP #48 · FRA41%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Vacherot V.

59%41%

Vacherot V. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Vacherot V.7.0/10

Strong advantage

van Assche L.6.2/10

Even match

Why

Surface+150 Clay Elo edgeSupports Vacherot V.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1903Supports Vacherot V.

Surface switchHard → ClayAgainst the prediction · van Assche L.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO2 010

Clay ELO1 766

Last 106–4

Age27

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $3.7M2026 $1.1M

ELO1 853

Clay ELO1 732

Last 106–4

Age22

Height178 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.9M2026 $726K

Valentin Vacherot faces Luca Van Assche in the Lyon round of 16 on clay. Valentin Vacherot holds the paper edge — ranked #32, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Valentin Vacherot grades 53 on serve, Luca Van Assche 63 on return.
Freshness: Valentin Vacherot comes in with 9 days of rest and 41 games in 14d, vs Luca Van Assche's 1 and 44.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Vacherot V. and van Assche L. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Vacherot V. went 5–1 (83%) against them, van Assche L. 2–4 (33%). Vacherot V. came out clearly better against 3 of 5 comparable opponents, van Assche L. against 0.

5–183%Vacherot V. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents2–433%van Assche L. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

12–4Sets6–10

94–78Games70–83

4–0Tiebreaks0–2

2–1Deciding sets1–1

vs Fils A.#10W7-5 4-6 6-4Tokyo · hardL3-6 2-6Tokyo · hard
vs Blockx A.#27W7-6(2) 7-6(4)Tokyo · hardW6-4 4-6 7-5Estoril · clay
vs Norrie C.#40W7-6 6-4Paris Masters · hardW6-7(6) 6-2 6-2 6-3US Open · hard

Show 2 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Hanfmann Y.#59W4-6 6-3 6-4Gstaad · clayL2-6 4-6Cincinnati · hard
vs Kovacevic A.#82W6-2 6-3 7-5US Open · hardL1-6 6-7(6)Winston-Salem · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Vacherot V.van Assche L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–46–4

Season win rate57% (23–17)66% (44–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20101853

Clay-court ELO17661732

Serve vs returnLast 37 vs 62 matches

1st-serve points won77%68%

Return points won34%41%

Aces / match10.23.4

ClutchLast 37 vs 62 matches

Break points saved64%63%

When it starts

COURT CENTRAL AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES · Next on · Not before 14:00

1This match: Vacherot V. v van Assche L.This match
2Herbert P. v Fritz T.Followed by
3Cobolli F. v Wawrinka S.Not before 19:00
4Jacquet K. v Nakashima B.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT CENTRAL AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES · 14:00 local

SurfaceClay · medium-slow

Forecast14°C · Overcast

Wind7 km/h

Humidity59%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Vacherot V.van Assche L.

9Days since last match1

0Matches · 7 days1

0Games · 7 days22

2Matches · 14 days2

41Games · 14 days44

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Valentin Vacherot vs Luca Van Assche — Lyon Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/assche-vs-vacherot-lyon-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).