Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima | Lyon Round of 16

UMPIRY

LyonR16ClayThu 22 Oct · ~18:30COURT CENTRAL AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES · After 2 matches

Kyrian JacquetATP #85 · FRA34%

VSSlight edge · Nakashima B.

Brandon Nakashima(5)ATP #17 · USA66%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Nakashima B.

34%66%

Nakashima B. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Jacquet K.6.0/10

Even match

Nakashima B.7.0/10

Strong advantage

Why

Surface+149 Clay Elo edgeSupports Nakashima B.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1839Supports Nakashima B.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Jacquet K.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Jacquet K.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 881

Clay ELO1 707

Last 107–3

Age25

Height178 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.3M2026 $503K

ELO2 045

Clay ELO1 713

Last 106–4

Age25

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $9.2M2026 $2.2M

Kyrian Jacquet faces Brandon Nakashima in the Lyon round of 16 on clay. Brandon Nakashima is the paper favourite — ranked #17, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage — but Kyrian Jacquet rides a 3-match win streak.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Kyrian Jacquet 59 games in 14 days, Brandon Nakashima 94.
Serve & return: Brandon Nakashima brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 64), Kyrian Jacquet the stronger return game (Return Rating 46).
Last match: Kyrian Jacquet edged Matteo Berrettini in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Jacquet K. and Nakashima B. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Jacquet K. went 2–3 (40%) against them, Nakashima B. 3–2 (60%). Results against comparable opponents are close (0 : 1 better-results split).

2–340%Jacquet K. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents3–260%Nakashima B. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

6–7Sets8–4

71–66Games66–53

1–3Tiebreaks1–1

0–2Deciding sets0–2

vs Bublik A.#19L3-6 4-6 6-7Wimbledon · grassL7-6(7) 3-6 6-7(5)Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Darderi L.#23W6-3 7-6(5)Tokyo · hardW6-2 6-3Montreal · hard
vs Blockx A.#27L6-3 4-6 6-7(4)Estoril · clayL6-3 3-6 4-6Madrid Masters · clay

Show 2 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Etcheverry T.#29W6-2 6-3Hangzhou · hardW6-3 6-4Washington · hard
vs Kovacevic A.#82L6-3 5-7 6-7Paris Masters · hardW6-2 7-5Cincinnati · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Jacquet K.Nakashima B.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–36–4

Season win rate65% (36–19)64% (37–21)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18812045

Clay-court ELO17071713

Serve vs returnLast 54 vs 55 matches

1st-serve points won74%79%

Return points won38%35%

Aces / match5.910.1

ClutchLast 54 vs 55 matches

Break points saved62%63%

When it starts

COURT CENTRAL AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES · After 2 matches · Followed by

1Vacherot V. v van Assche L.Not before 14:00
2Herbert P. v Fritz T.Followed by
3This match: Jacquet K. v Nakashima B.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

COURT CENTRAL AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES · ~18:30 local

SurfaceClay · medium-slow

Forecast6°C · Clear

Wind2 km/h

Humidity93%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Jacquet K.Nakashima B.

1Days since last match1

3Matches · 7 days1

59Games · 7 days34

3Matches · 14 days3

59Games · 14 days94

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Kyrian Jacquet vs Brandon Nakashima — Lyon Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/jacquet-vs-nakashima-lyon-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).