Elena Rybakina vs Polina Kudermetova

UMPIRY

Ningbo Open - NingboR16HardWed 21 Oct · 10:00

Elena Rybakina(1)WTA #1 · KAZ92%

VSStrong favourite · Rybakina E.

Polina KudermetovaWTA #105 · UZB8%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Rybakina E.

92%8%

Clear edge for Rybakina E. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 13 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Rybakina E.8.0/10

Dominant favourite

Kudermetova P.3.7/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+464 Hard Elo edgeSupports Rybakina E.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2122Supports Rybakina E.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Kudermetova P.

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO2 261

Hard ELO2 173

Last 108–2

Age27

Height184 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $35.4M2026 $10.9M

ELO1 817

Hard ELO1 695

Last 105–5

Age23

Height172 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.7M2026 $426K

Elena Rybakina faces Polina Kudermetova in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo round of 16 on hard. Elena Rybakina is the paper favourite — ranked #1, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 460-point hard Elo advantage — but Polina Kudermetova rides a 3-match win streak.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Elena Rybakina 0 games in 14 days, Polina Kudermetova 52.
Serve & return: Elena Rybakina brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 100), Polina Kudermetova the stronger return game (Return Rating 36).
Surface form: Elena Rybakina 8 of 10, Polina Kudermetova 5 of 10 on hard recently — Elena Rybakina the sharper of late.

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Rybakina E. and Kudermetova P. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Rybakina E. went 5–2 (71%) against them, Kudermetova P. 3–5 (38%). Rybakina E. came out clearly better against 5 of 6 comparable opponents, Kudermetova P. against 1.

5–271%Rybakina E. · better vs 5Record vs common opponents3–538%Kudermetova P. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

12–6Sets6–12

100–80Games75–95

1–1Tiebreaks0–2

2–2Deciding sets2–0

vs Andreeva M.#3W7-5 6-1Stuttgart · clayL4-6 1-6Beijing · hard
vs Svitolina E.#6L6-2 4-6 4-6Rome · clayL6-7(4) 4-6Washington · hard
vs Fernandez L.#30W6-7 6-4 7-6Stuttgart · clayL2-6 1-6Charleston · clay

Show 3 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Sakkari M.#31W6-4 6-1Rome · clayL0-6 6-7Athens · hard
vs Samsonova L.#43W6-4 4-6 6-4Toronto · hardL3-6 3-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Charaeva A.#97L6-3 4-6 3-6Beijing · hardW4-6 6-4 6-1Wimbledon · grass

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Rybakina E. leads 1–0

Rybakina E.June 2023BerlinGrass6-4 6-2

Evidence

Rybakina E.Kudermetova P.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–25–5

Season win rate78% (49–14)65% (40–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO22611817

Hard-court ELO21731695

Serve vs returnLast 63 vs 60 matches

1st-serve points won74%66%

Return points won42%46%

Aces / match6.63.1

ClutchLast 63 vs 60 matches

Break points saved63%54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast23°C · Overcast

Wind19 km/h

Humidity71%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Rybakina E.Kudermetova P.

17Days since last match2

0Matches · 7 days2

0Games · 7 days37

0Matches · 14 days3

0Games · 14 days52

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Elena Rybakina vs Polina Kudermetova — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/kudermetova-vs-rybakina-ningbo-open-ningbo-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).