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Caty Mcnally vs Sinja Kraus — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32

Japan Open - OsakaR32HardMon 19 Oct · ~13:00Court 1 · After 1 match
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · McNally C.
66%34%

McNally C. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
McNally C.6.3/10
Marginal edge
Kraus S.5.1/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+86 Hard Elo edgeSupports McNally C.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1817Supports McNally C.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Kraus S.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Kraus S.
Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players
ELO1 920
Hard ELO1 734
Last 105–5
Age24
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $4.3M2026 $1.4M
ELO1 840
Hard ELO1 623
Last 107–3
Age24
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.3M2026 $700K

Caty Mcnally faces Sinja Kraus in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 32 on hard. Caty Mcnally is the paper favourite — ranked #70, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Sinja Kraus arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Caty Mcnally's 5 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

McNally C. and Kraus S. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. McNally C. went 2–6 (25%) against them, Kraus S. 4–4 (50%). Kraus S. came out better against 2 of 8 comparable opponents, McNally C. against 0 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (lower-tier event).

2–625%McNally C. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents4–450%Kraus S. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
6–11Sets9–9
78–91Games74–84
0–2Tiebreaks1–0
0–2Deciding sets1–1
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Head-to-head

1 meeting · McNally C. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

McNally C.Kraus S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate57% (29–22)64% (49–27) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1920 (ahead)1840
Hard-court ELO1734 (ahead)1623
Serve vs returnLast 51 vs 74 matches
1st-serve points won61%62% (ahead)
Return points won45%47% (ahead)
Aces / match1.41.4
ClutchLast 51 vs 74 matches
Break points saved57% (ahead)55%

When it starts

Court 1 · After 1 match · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 1 · ~13:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast24°C · Overcast
Wind3 km/h
Humidity71%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
McNally C.Kraus S.
4 — fresherDays since last match1
3Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
93Games · 7 days42 — fresher
4 — fresherMatches · 14 days5
110Games · 14 days105 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Caty Mcnally vs Sinja Kraus — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/kraus-vs-mcnally-japan-open-osaka-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).