Lilli Tagger vs Liudmila Samsonova — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32
Why
Surface+36 Hard Elo edgeSupports Samsonova L.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1775Supports Samsonova L.
Recent runLost last 3Informative
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Tagger L.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Tagger L.
ELO1 775
Hard ELO1 687
Last 105–5
Age18
Height185 cm
EarningsCareer $829K2026 $757K
ELO1 932
Hard ELO1 790
Last 105–5
Age27
Height180 cm
EarningsCareer $9.4M2026 $1.4M
Lilli Tagger faces Liudmila Samsonova in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 32 on hard. Liudmila Samsonova is the paper favourite — ranked #43, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage — but Lilli Tagger has won their only previous meeting. Recent hard form is closely matched.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Lilli Tagger 28 games in 14 days, Liudmila Samsonova 83.
- Head-to-head: Lilli Tagger leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Linz 2026.
- Surface form: Both 5 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Common opponents
3 shared · last 12 monthsTagger L. and Samsonova L. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Tagger L. went 1–2 (33%) against them, Samsonova L. 2–1 (67%). Results against comparable opponents are close (0 : 1 better-results split).
1–233%Tagger L. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents2–167%Samsonova L. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
3–5Sets4–2
38–44Games30–22
1–2Tiebreaks0–0
1–1Deciding sets0–0
Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.
vs Potapova A.#26L6-7 0-6Linz · hardL3-6 2-6Rome · clay
vs Krejcikova B.#46W6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(4)Livesport Prague Open · hardW6-1 7-5Toronto · hard
vs Wang X.#91L3-6 6-3 4-6Roland Garros · clayW6-2 6-2Washington · hard
Evidence
Tagger L.Samsonova L.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–55–5
Season win rate59% (30–21) (ahead)46% (21–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO17751932 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO16871790 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 50 vs 43 matches
1st-serve points won67% (ahead)66%
Return points won43% (ahead)42%
Aces / match4.2 (ahead)3.0
ClutchLast 50 vs 43 matches
Break points saved54%55% (ahead)
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Lilli Tagger vs Liudmila Samsonova — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/samsonova-vs-tagger-japan-open-osaka-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).