Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Aleksandar Kovacevic

UMPIRY

AlmatyR32HardMon 19 Oct · 11:00

Stefanos Tsitsipas(7)ATP #43 · GRE81%

VSStrong favourite · Tsitsipas S.

Aleksandar KovacevicATP #81 · USA19%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Tsitsipas S.

81%19%

Clear edge for Tsitsipas S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Tsitsipas S.7.1/10

Strong advantage

Kovacevic A.5.1/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+191 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tsitsipas S.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1833Supports Tsitsipas S.

Recent runLost last 2Informative

Head-to-headSplit 1–1 on hardAgainst the prediction · Kovacevic A.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO2 060

Hard ELO1 911

Last 107–3

Age28

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $38.2M2026 $1.4M

ELO1 789

Hard ELO1 697

Last 104–6

Age28

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $3.3M2026 $834K

Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Aleksandar Kovacevic in the Almaty round of 32 on hard. Stefanos Tsitsipas holds the paper edge — ranked #43, a roughly 190-point hard Elo advantage. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Stefanos Tsitsipas 92 games in 14 days, Aleksandar Kovacevic 30.
Under pressure: Stefanos Tsitsipas has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 87 vs Aleksandar Kovacevic's 19).
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1. Last met at Winston-Salem 2026.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Tsitsipas S. and Kovacevic A. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Tsitsipas S. went 2–3 (40%) against them, Kovacevic A. 0–5 (0%). Tsitsipas S. came out better against 2 of 5 comparable opponents, Kovacevic A. against 0.

2–340%Tsitsipas S. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents0–50%Kovacevic A. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

6–8Sets2–11

72–75Games51–72

2–2Tiebreaks0–0

0–1Deciding sets0–2

vs Djokovic N.#11L3-6 4-6 2-6Wimbledon · grassL4-6 6-1 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hard
vs Vacherot V.#14L6-4 6-7(5) 4-6Tokyo · hardL2-6 3-6 5-7US Open · hard
vs Cerundolo F.#20L5-7 4-6Monte Carlo Masters · clayL4-6 2-6London · grass

Show 2 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Fery A.#37W6-1 7-6Miami Masters · hardL6-3 5-7 3-6Winston-Salem · hard
vs Harris L.#110W6-7(1) 6-3 7-6(4) 6-4US Open · hardL3-6 4-6Chengdu · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1

Kovacevic A.August 2026Winston-SalemHard6-3 7-6(1)
Tsitsipas S.February 2024Los CabosHard7-6 6-3

Evidence

Tsitsipas S.Kovacevic A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–34–6

Season win rate63% (36–21)42% (22–31)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20601789

Hard-court ELO19111697

Serve vs returnLast 54 vs 52 matches

1st-serve points won77%76%

Return points won34%31%

Aces / match7.69.5

ClutchLast 54 vs 52 matches

Break points saved64%62%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast11°C · Clear

Wind4 km/h

Humidity31%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Tsitsipas S.Kovacevic A.

4Days since last match11

2Matches · 7 days0

52Games · 7 days0

4Matches · 14 days1

92Games · 14 days30

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Aleksandar Kovacevic — Almaty Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/kovacevic-vs-tsitsipas-almaty-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).