Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo — London Round of 32
Kovacevic A.
Aleksandar Kovacevic faces Francisco Cerundolo in the London round of 32 on grass. Francisco Cerundolo holds the paper edge — ranked #27, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 170-point grass Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Cerundolo F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Aleksandar Kovacevic comes in with 1 days of rest and 49 games in 14d, vs Francisco Cerundolo's 15 and 0.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Aleksandar Kovacevic grades 48 on serve, Francisco Cerundolo 82 on return.
- Head-to-head: Francisco Cerundolo leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Miami Masters 2023.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadKovacevic A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 49 games (7d) · Cerundolo F.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-20 | Miami Masters | R64 | hard | Francisco Cerundolo | 6-4 6-4 |