Mattia Bellucci faces Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Almaty round of 32 on hard. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is the paper favourite — ranked #31, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Mattia Bellucci has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Mattia Bellucci brings the better recent hard form (8 of 10).
Bellucci M. and Etcheverry T. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Bellucci M. went 2–2 (50%) against them, Etcheverry T. 0–5 (0%). Bellucci M. came out better against 2 of 4 comparable opponents, Etcheverry T. against 0 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (lower-tier event).
Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.
Umpiry, "Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry — Almaty Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/bellucci-vs-etcheverry-almaty-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).