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Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry — Almaty Round of 32

AlmatyR32HardMon 19 Oct · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
53%47%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Bellucci M.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Etcheverry T.5.8/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+88 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Etcheverry T.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1812Against the prediction · Etcheverry T.
Recent run4-match win streakSupports Bellucci M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Etcheverry T.
Opponent formOpponent hot: 8 of last 10Supports Bellucci M.
ELO1 883
Hard ELO1 746
Last 108–2
Age25
Height175 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $2.6M2026 $662K
ELO1 914
Hard ELO1 755
Last 103–7
Age27
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $7.2M2026 $1.6M

Mattia Bellucci faces Tomas Martin Etcheverry in the Almaty round of 32 on hard. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is the paper favourite — ranked #31, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage — but Mattia Bellucci has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Mattia Bellucci brings the better recent hard form (8 of 10).

Key context

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Bellucci M. and Etcheverry T. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Bellucci M. went 2–2 (50%) against them, Etcheverry T. 0–5 (0%). Bellucci M. came out better against 2 of 4 comparable opponents, Etcheverry T. against 0 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (lower-tier event).

2–250%Bellucci M. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents0–50%Etcheverry T. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
3–4Sets2–12
31–32Games68–89
0–1Tiebreaks2–5
0–0Deciding sets0–2

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

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Head-to-head

1 meeting · Bellucci M. leads 1–0
10

Evidence

Bellucci M.Etcheverry T.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss8–2 (ahead)3–7
Season win rate57% (37–28) (ahead)52% (27–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO18831914 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17461755 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 60 vs 51 matches
1st-serve points won73% (ahead)72%
Return points won37% (ahead)35%
Aces / match6.4 (ahead)6.0
ClutchLast 60 vs 51 matches
Break points saved64% (ahead)57%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast11°C · Clear
Wind4 km/h
Humidity31%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Bellucci M.Etcheverry T.
1Days since last match8 — fresher
4Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
76Games · 7 days0 — fresher
8Matches · 14 days1 — fresher
190Games · 14 days30 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Mattia Bellucci vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry — Almaty Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/bellucci-vs-etcheverry-almaty-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).