Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova — US Open Round of 128

US Open · WTA · Round of 128
Naomi Osaka
JPN13
Naomi Osaka
#13WTA
1987ELO
1922Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$27MCAREER
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWLWW
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 1 September 2026 ·
hard
Anastasia Zakharova
RUS
Anastasia Zakharova
#101WTA
1742ELO
1714Hard ELO
$587kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
24 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWLW
Osaka N.
7-6 7-6
Zakharova A.
Osaka N.
7872
Zakharova A.
6660

Naomi Osaka defeated Anastasia Zakharova in the Round of 128 at the US Open. The match ended with a 7-6, 7-6 victory for Osaka. Osaka served 11 aces and committed 3 double faults, while converting 57% of break points and winning 4 service breaks, matching Zakharova's 4 service breaks and 57% break point conversion rate.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • Withdrew from Cincinnati citing fatigue for the second consecutive year, raising uncertainty over her exact fitness and seeding heading into the draw.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

    Osaka N.tennismajors.com ↗

  • “It's my tribute to Iverson. I really like him a lot. Nike said 'basketball.' So I said, OK, you want basketball, I'll give you basketball. I love expressing myself through clothes.”

    Osaka N.WTA Tennis ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Osaka N.Zakharova A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
62%
56%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
52%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.8
0.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 46). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Osaka N.Zakharova A.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
88
55
Break points saved·Dominant
85
47
Break points won·Slight edge
98
87
Deciding sets·Dominant
97
67
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
90
84

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Osaka N.84%
Zakharova A.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Osaka N. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Osaka N.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Zakharova A.
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.6+208 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.4Hard Elo 1714
8.1Overall Elo 1987
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1742
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.77 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Osaka N.Zakharova A.
Freshness·Clear edge
77
97

Osaka N.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Zakharova A.: 11 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 88%

Draw