Colton Smith vs Bu Yunchaokete — Lincoln Quarter-final
Smith C.
Colton Smith faces Bu Yunchaokete in the Lincoln quarter-final on hard. Bu Yunchaokete holds the paper edge — a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Yunchaokete B. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Colton Smith 32 games in 14 days, Bu Yunchaokete 71.
- Under pressure: Colton Smith has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 63 vs Bu Yunchaokete's 38).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on hard
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadSmith C.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Yunchaokete B.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.