James Mccabe vs Bernard Tomic — Lincoln Round of 16

Lincoln · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

AUS

James Mccabe

#242ATP

1532ELO

1481Hard ELO

23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLLLWLWWWL

—

Sets

Thursday, 16 July 2026 · 10:00

hard

AUS

Bernard Tomic

#206ATP

1475ELO

1441Hard ELO

$117kYTD

$6.8MCAREER

33 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WLWLWLLWLL

Mccabe J.

Tomic B.

James Mccabe faces Bernard Tomic in the Lincoln round of 16 on hard. Bernard Tomic holds the paper edge — ranked #206.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:20 UTC

Mccabe J.71%

Tomic B.29%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Mccabe J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: James Mccabe comes in with 0 days of rest and 42 games in 14d, vs Bernard Tomic's 0 and 77.
Last match: James Mccabe edged Masamichi Imamura in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Mccabe J.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Tomic B.

5.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.5+40 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.5Hard Elo 1441

5.7Overall Elo 1532

ELO gap

4.3Overall Elo 1474

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

5.45 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

5.05 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Mccabe J.Stable

Tomic B.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season

Mccabe J.Tomic B.

1st serve in·Even

64%

63%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

76%

68%

2nd serve points won·Even

49%

51%

Service points won·Even

66%

62%

Return points won·Even

34%

36%

Break points saved·Even

62%

65%

Aces / match·Dominant

9.6

4.1

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.2

1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Mccabe J.serving89% hold

wins 69% of points on serve vs Tomic B.

Tomic B.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Mccabe J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Mccabe J.Tomic B.

Clutch Rating·Clear edge

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Slight edge

Deciding sets·Slight edge

Tiebreaks·Dominant

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Mccabe J.Tomic B.

Freshness·Clear edge

Mccabe J.: played today · 2 matches, 42 games (7d) · Tomic B.: played today · 3 matches, 77 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-slowfavours grinders

SlowFast

Weather forecast

31°CClear

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 45%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.