Hayato Matsuoka vs Hiroki Moriya — Lincoln Round of 32
Matsuoka H.Hayato Matsuoka faces Hiroki Moriya in the Lincoln round of 32 on hard. Hayato Matsuoka holds the paper edge — ranked #347.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Matsuoka H. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Hayato Matsuoka comes in with 5 days of rest and 51 games in 14d, vs Hiroki Moriya's 1 and 104.
- Surface form: Hayato Matsuoka 3 of 8, Hiroki Moriya 2 of 8 on hard recently — Hayato Matsuoka the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadMatsuoka H.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Moriya H.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.