Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Ignacio Buse — Gstaad Round of 32
PER
Tsitsipas S.
Stefanos Tsitsipas faces Ignacio Buse in the Gstaad round of 32 on clay. Ignacio Buse holds the paper edge — ranked #34, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's semi-final.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Stefanos Tsitsipas has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 90 vs Ignacio Buse's 63).
- Fatigue load: Both played two three-setters in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
- Head-to-head: Ignacio Buse leads the head-to-head 1–0; this is their first meeting on clay. Last met at Mallorca 2026.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadTsitsipas S.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Buse I.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | Mallorca | R32 | grass | Ignacio Buse | 6.4-7.7 3-6 |