Alexandre Muller vs Alexander ShevchenkoGstaad Round of 32

Gstaad · ATP · Round of 32
#126ATP
1665ELO
1628Clay ELO
$426kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLLLL
Sets
Monday, 13 July 2026 ·
clay
1669ELO
1624Clay ELO
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWWWLLW
Muller A.
vs
Shevchenko A.

Alexandre Muller faces Alexander Shevchenko in the Gstaad round of 32 on clay. Alexander Shevchenko brings the better recent clay form (5 of 8).

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:21 UTC
Muller A.47%
Shevchenko A.53%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Alexandre Muller 0 of 8, Alexander Shevchenko 5 of 8 on clay recently — Alexander Shevchenko the sharper of late.
  • Stage: Alexander Shevchenko defends last year's round of 16.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
Form & Matchup
5.1+4 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Clay Elo 1624
4.9Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1669
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
0.71 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.16 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 9
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
3.0Grass → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

21 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
51%
Service points won·Even
61%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.1
6.6
Double faults / match·Even
1.7
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Muller A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Shevchenko A.

Shevchenko A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Muller A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
75
77
Break points saved·Even
94
92
Break points won·Clear edge
44
60
Deciding sets·Slight edge
95
87
Tiebreaks·Even
84
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on clay

Muller A.Shevchenko A.
Serve
4
Return
47

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
98
97

Muller A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Shevchenko A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°COvercast
Wind 1 km/hHumidity 37%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.