Federico Coria vs Guy Den Ouden — Liege Round of 16
Coria F.
Federico Coria faces Guy Den Ouden in the Liege round of 16 on clay. Guy Den Ouden holds the paper edge — ranked #244.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Federico Coria has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 68 vs Guy Den Ouden's 24).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Federico Coria 19 games in 14 days, Guy Den Ouden 0.
- Last match: Federico Coria advanced when Geoffrey Blancaneaux retired.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (3 vs 17). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCoria F.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Den Ouden G.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.