Miguel Damas vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly — Liege Round of 16
Damas M.
Miguel Damas faces Gilles Arnaud Bailly in the Liege round of 16 on clay. Gilles Arnaud Bailly holds the paper edge — ranked #210, a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Bailly G. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Gilles Arnaud Bailly dropped the opening set before beating Andres Santamarta Roig 5–7 6–4 7–5.
- Last match: Miguel Damas handed Harold Huens a first-set bagel in a 6–0 6–4 win.
- Fatigue load: Gilles Arnaud Bailly carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.