Emiliana Arango vs Paula Badosa — Bastad Round of 16

Bastad · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
Emiliana Arango
COL
Emiliana Arango
#97WTA
1624ELO
1553Clay ELO
25 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWWLLLW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 8 July 2026 ·
clay
Paula Badosa
ESP
Paula Badosa
#141WTA
1780ELO
1684Clay ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWWLLLLL
Arango E.
vs
Badosa P.

Emiliana Arango faces Paula Badosa in the Bastad round of 16 on clay. Emiliana Arango holds the paper edge — ranked #97.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Arango E.12%
Badosa P.88%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Badosa P. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Arango E.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Badosa P.
6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.4Clay Elo 1553
Surface ELO
6.6+131 Clay Elo edge
2.8Overall Elo 1624
ELO gap
7.2Overall Elo 1780
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.76 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Arango E.Rising
Badosa P.Stable

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

16 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Arango E.Badosa P.
1st serve in·Clear edge
71%
56%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
56%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
39%
Service points won·Even
52%
56%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Even
57%
53%
Aces / match·Dominant
0.7
4.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.3
7.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Arango E.serving43% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Badosa P.serving47% hold

wins 49% of points on serve vs Arango E.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Arango E.Badosa P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
57
91
Break points saved·Dominant
56
95
Break points won·Clear edge
81
94
Deciding sets·Dominant
70
95
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
74
94

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Arango E.Badosa P.
Freshness·Even
93
89

Arango E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast
19°CClear
Wind 26 km/hHumidity 76%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.