Paula Badosa vs Varvara LepchenkoBastad Quarter-final

Bastad · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#84WTA
1780ELO
1684Clay ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 9 July 2026 ·
clay
#184WTA
1578ELO
1533Clay ELO
40 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWLWLLWW
Badosa P.
7-5 7-6
Lepchenko V.
Badosa P.
772
Lepchenko V.
560

Paula Badosa advanced to the Bastad semifinals with a quarterfinal win over Varvara Lepchenko, taking the match 7-5, 7-6 on clay. Badosa served four aces to Lepchenko's three and converted two of her break points, while Lepchenko converted one. Badosa won 68 percent of her first-serve points to Lepchenko's 56 percent.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2015-09-21SeoulR32hardVarvara Lepchenko6-2 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
55%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
41%
44%
Service points won·Even
56%
55%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Even
54%
55%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.9
3.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
7.5
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
91
15
Break points saved·Dominant
84
17
Break points won·Dominant
95
56
Deciding sets·Dominant
93
13
Tiebreaks·Dominant
95
55

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC
Badosa P.72%
Lepchenko V.28%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Badosa P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.9+152 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Clay Elo 1532
7.5Overall Elo 1780
ELO gap
2.5Overall Elo 1578
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.85 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
97

Lepchenko V.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 51%

Draw