Yulia Putintseva vs Paula Badosa — Bastad Semi-final
Putintseva Y.
Yulia Putintseva faces Paula Badosa in the Bastad semi-final on clay. Yulia Putintseva is the paper favourite — ranked #84, a roughly 60-point clay Elo advantage — but Paula Badosa has won 4 of their 6 previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Head-to-head: Paula Badosa leads the head-to-head 4–2, 0–1 on clay. Last met at Indian Wells 2026.
- Last match: Yulia Putintseva dropped just 5 games past Sinja Kraus.
- Last match: Paula Badosa edged Varvara Lepchenko in two tight sets (7–5 7–6).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPutintseva Y.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 42 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
2nd on CENTRE COURT · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead
- 1Quevedo K. v Waltert S.
- 2Putintseva Y. v Badosa P.This match
Conditions
Head to head
2–4| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells | R128 | hard | Yulia Putintseva | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati | R16 | hard | Paula Badosa | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | R64 | clay | Paula Badosa | 4-6 6-1 7-5 |
| 2022-08-08 | Toronto | R32 | hard | Yulia Putintseva | 7-5 1-0 RET |
| 2022-03-21 | Miami | R32 | hard | Paula Badosa | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2021-06-28 | Wimbledon | R64 | grass | Paula Badosa | 6-4 6-1 |