Raul Brancaccio vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Milan Round of 32
Brancaccio R.
Raul Brancaccio faces Nikoloz Basilashvili in the Milan round of 32 on clay. Nikoloz Basilashvili holds the paper edge — ranked #112, a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Basilashvili N. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Raul Brancaccio 40 games in 14 days, Nikoloz Basilashvili 94.
- Under pressure: Nikoloz Basilashvili has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 73 vs Raul Brancaccio's 12).
- Surface form: Raul Brancaccio 2 of 5, Nikoloz Basilashvili 3 of 5 on clay recently — Nikoloz Basilashvili the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBrancaccio R.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 21 games (7d) · Basilashvili N.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.