Sumit Nagal vs Francesco Passaro — Milan Round of 32
Nagal S.
Sumit Nagal faces Francesco Passaro in the Milan round of 32 on clay. Francesco Passaro is the paper favourite — ranked #190, a roughly 130-point clay Elo advantage — but Sumit Nagal arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 10 on clay to Francesco Passaro's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Passaro F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Sumit Nagal 134 games in 14 days, Francesco Passaro 71.
- Form trend: Sumit Nagal's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Francesco Passaro's has cooled.
- Win streak: Sumit Nagal arrives on a 5-match winning run.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNagal S.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 115 games (7d) · Passaro F.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.