Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Miguel Tobon — Milan Round of 32
Diaz Acosta F.
Facundo Diaz Acosta faces Miguel Tobon in the Milan round of 32 on clay. Facundo Diaz Acosta holds the paper edge — ranked #120, a roughly 300-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Diaz Acosta F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Facundo Diaz Acosta 130 games in 14 days, Miguel Tobon 79.
- Surface form: Facundo Diaz Acosta 7 of 9, Miguel Tobon 4 of 9 on clay recently — Facundo Diaz Acosta the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadDiaz Acosta F.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d) · Tobon M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.