Alexander Shevchenko vs Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Poznan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

KAZ

Alexander Shevchenko

#97ATP

1698ELO

1641Clay ELO

25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Sets

Monday, 15 June 2026 · 09:00

clay

ARG

Genaro Alberto Olivieri

#202ATP

1474ELO

1454Clay ELO

27 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

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Alexander Shevchenko faces Genaro Alberto Olivieri in the Poznan round of 32 on clay. Alexander Shevchenko holds the paper edge — ranked #97, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Fatigue load: Alexander Shevchenko carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Win streak: Alexander Shevchenko arrives on a 4-match winning run.
Surface form: Alexander Shevchenko 6 of 10, Genaro Alberto Olivieri 4 of 10 on clay recently — Alexander Shevchenko the sharper of late.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTC

Shevchenko A.79%

Olivieri G.21%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Shevchenko A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Shevchenko A.

7.1

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Olivieri G.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

7.3+187 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.7Clay Elo 1454

7.8Overall Elo 1698

ELO gap

2.2Overall Elo 1474

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

6.86 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

4.44 of last 10 on clay

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.