Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino — Poznan Round of 32
Poznan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
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Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
Maks Kasnikowski faces Lorenzo Giustino in the Poznan round of 32 on clay. Lorenzo Giustino is the paper favourite — ranked #211 — but Maks Kasnikowski arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 6 on clay to Lorenzo Giustino's 1.
Key context
- Surface form: Maks Kasnikowski 3 of 6, Lorenzo Giustino 1 of 6 on clay recently — Maks Kasnikowski the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Maks Kasnikowski carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTCKasnikowski M.58%
Giustino L.42%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Slight edge · Kasnikowski M. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
6.0+81 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO4.0Clay Elo 1383
4.7Overall Elo 1422
ELO gap5.3Overall Elo 1448
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
4.75 of last 10 on clay
Surface form1.92 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form61%1st serve in61%
72%1st serve points won+6%66%
58%2nd serve points won+8%50%
66%Service points won+6%60%
41%Return points won+2%39%
58%Break points saved+4%62%
3.8Aces / match+0.33.5
1.1Double faults / match+1.12.2
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final