Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski — Poznan Round of 32

Poznan · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
BRA
Pedro Boscardin Dias
#241ATP
1498ELO
1486Clay ELO
23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWLLWLLWW
—
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
clay
Jan Choinski
GBR
Jan Choinski
#105ATP
1650ELO
1638Clay ELO
$153kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWWWW

Pedro Boscardin Dias faces Jan Choinski in the Poznan round of 32 on clay. Jan Choinski holds the paper edge — ranked #105, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage.

Key context

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:20 UTC
Boscardin Dias P.32%
Choinski J.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Choinski J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Boscardin Dias P.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Choinski J.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Clay Elo 1486
Surface ELO
6.9+152 Clay Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1498
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1650
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.44 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.28 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Boscardin Dias P.Choinski J.
56%1st serve in+9%65%
68%1st serve points won68%
47%2nd serve points won+3%50%
59%Service points won+3%62%
43%Return points won+5%38%
53%Break points saved+5%58%
3.3Aces / match+1.24.5
3.2Double faults / match+1.22

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw