Caty Mcnally vs Ajla Tomljanovic

s Hertogenbosch · WTA · Quarter-final

USA

Caty Mcnally

#59WTA

1809ELO

1704Grass ELO

24 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWLLWWWL

—

Sets

Friday, 12 June 2026 · 17:55

grass

AUS

Ajla Tomljanovic

#109WTA

1719ELO

1657Grass ELO

33 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLLLLWLLL

Caty Mcnally faces Ajla Tomljanovic in the s Hertogenbosch quarter-final on grass. Caty Mcnally holds the paper edge — ranked #59, leading the head-to-head 3–0, a roughly 50-point grass Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Ajla Tomljanovic dropped the opening set before beating Dayana Yastremska 4–6 6–4 7–5.
Head-to-head: Caty Mcnally leads the head-to-head 3–0, but this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Roland Garros 2026.
Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTC

Mcnally C.65%

Tomljanovic A.35%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mcnally C. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Mcnally C.

7.1

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Tomljanovic A.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.6+47 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.4Grass Elo 1657

6.3Overall Elo 1809

ELO gap

3.7Overall Elo 1719

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

8.07 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

4.95 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

17°CDrizzle

Wind 19 km/hHumidity 91%

Head to head

3–0

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-05-24	Roland Garros	R128	clay	Caty Mcnally	6-3 6.5-7.7 3-6
2025-10-20	Guangzhou	R16	hard	Caty Mcnally	6-4 4-6 6-3
2025-03-05	Indian Wells	R128	hard	Caty Mcnally	6-4 0-0 RET

Statistics

Recent form

Mcnally C.Tomljanovic A.

72%1st serve in+3%69%

60%1st serve points won+3%63%

45%2nd serve points won+2%43%

56%Service points won+1%57%

45%Return points won45%

58%Break points saved58%

0.9Aces / match+1.22.1

2.6Double faults / match+35.6

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw

R32

R16

Quarter-finals

Semi-finals

Final

Caty Mcnally vs Ajla Tomljanovic — s Hertogenbosch Quarter-final