Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech

s Hertogenbosch · ATP · Round of 16

FRA

Adrian Mannarino

#46ATP

1653ELO

1651Grass ELO

$445kYTD

$15MCAREER

37 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

WLLLLLLLLW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 10 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

FRA

Arthur Rinderknech

#24ATP

1811ELO

1686Grass ELO

$666kYTD

$7.0MCAREER

30 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLWWLLLWL

Adrian Mannarino faces Arthur Rinderknech in the s Hertogenbosch round of 16 on grass. They have met 3 times, Adrian Mannarino leading 2–1, though this is their first meeting on grass.

Key context

Head-to-head: Adrian Mannarino leads the head-to-head 2–1, but this is their first meeting on grass. Last met at Canada Masters 2024.
Stage: Adrian Mannarino defends last year's round of 16.
Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Mannarino A.25%

Rinderknech A.75%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Rinderknech A. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Mannarino A.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Rinderknech A.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

4.6Grass Elo 1650

Surface ELO

5.4+35 Grass Elo edge

3.0Overall Elo 1653

ELO gap

7.0Overall Elo 1811

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

8.28 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

5.15 of last 10 on grass

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

5.9Won 66% in NED (32)

Country comfort

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

6.0Reached qualifying here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

15°COvercast

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 78%

Head to head

2–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2024-08-05	Canada Masters	R64	hard	Arthur Rinderknech	6-4 2-6 6-4
2023-09-25	Astana	R32	hard	Adrian Mannarino	7-6(4) 6-2
2022-08-08	Canada Masters	R64	hard	Adrian Mannarino	6-3 6-3