Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov — s Hertogenbosch R32

s Hertogenbosch · ATP · Round of 32

CRO

Marin Cilic

#47ATP

1811ELO

1776Grass ELO

$627kYTD

$33MCAREER

37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLWLLWLWW

2 — 1

Sets

Monday, 8 June 2026 · 14:40

grass

CENTRE COURT · 3rd on

CAN

Denis Shapovalov

#42ATP

1795ELO

1643Grass ELO

$595kYTD

$15MCAREER

27 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLWWLLLWW

Marin Cilic recovered from a set down to defeat Denis Shapovalov 6-7 6-4 7-5 in the s Hertogenbosch round of 32.

Key context

Momentum: Marin Cilic won five games in a row.
Set 3, game 3: Denis Shapovalov broke serve.
Pressure points: Marin Cilic converted 6 of 10 break points; Denis Shapovalov converted 5 of 7 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:20 UTC

Cilic M.67%

Shapovalov D.33%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Cilic M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Cilic M.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Shapovalov D.

4.8

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

6.7+133 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.3Grass Elo 1643

5.2Overall Elo 1811

ELO gap

4.8Overall Elo 1795

5.0First meeting on grass

H2H

5.0First meeting on grass

7.98 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

3.94 of last 10 on grass

0.0Lost last 3

Win streak

0.0Lost last 2

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Cilic M.

6⁵672

Shapovalov D.

7⁷451

Conditions

Weather

20°COvercast

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 55%

Head to head

3–3

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-01-19	Australian Open	R64	hard	Marin Cilic	6-4 6-3 6-2
2021-06-07	Stuttgart	QF	grass	Marin Cilic	7-5 7-6(3)
2020-08-24	Cincinnati Masters	R64	hard	Denis Shapovalov	6-3 6-3
2020-02-17	Marseille	R16	hard	Denis Shapovalov	6-4 4-6 6-2
2019-03-04	Indian Wells Masters	R32	hard	Denis Shapovalov	6-4 6-2
2018-10-22	Basel	R32	hard	Marin Cilic	6-4 6-2