Luca Castelnuovo vs Jurij Rodionov

Stuttgart · ATP · Qualifying Semi-final

SUI

Luca Castelnuovo

#354ATP

1252ELO

1326Grass ELO

29 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWWLLLWLW

0 — 2

Sets

Saturday, 6 June 2026 · 12:40

grass

COLOSSEUM · 2nd on

AUT

Jurij Rodionov

#153ATP

1594ELO

1514Grass ELO

$89kYTD

$1.6MCAREER

27 yrs · 191 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWWWLLLLW

Jurij Rodionov won five games in a row to see off Luca Castelnuovo 6-1 6-4 in the Stuttgart qualifying semi-final.

Key context

Set 2, game 7: Jurij Rodionov broke serve.
Set 2, game 10: Jurij Rodionov saved three break points to hold serve.
Pressure points: Luca Castelnuovo converted 0 of 4 break points; Jurij Rodionov converted 3 of 5 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:20 UTC

Castelnuovo L.9%

Rodionov J.91%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rodionov J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Castelnuovo L.

5.4

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Rodionov J.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Form & Matchup

2.7Grass Elo 1326

Surface ELO

7.3+187 Grass Elo edge

0.7Overall Elo 1252

ELO gap

9.3Overall Elo 1594

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

1.52 of last 10 on grass

0.0Lost last 3

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

7.0Hard → Grass

Surface transition

3.0Clay → Grass

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Castelnuovo L.

140

Rodionov J.

662