Mert Alkaya vs Pierre Hugues Herbert

Stuttgart · ATP · Qualifying Final

TUR

Mert Alkaya

#333ATP

1447ELO

1423Grass ELO

25 yrs

Last 10 · pre-match

WLLLWLWLLL

0 — 2

Sets

Sunday, 7 June 2026 · 13:10

grass

COLOSSEUM · 2nd on

FRAQ

Pierre Hugues Herbert

#232ATP

1591ELO

1546Grass ELO

35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWLWWLLLWL

Pierre Hugues Herbert broke serve in the second set to take control and defeat Mert Alkaya 7-6 6-4 in the Stuttgart qualifying final.

Key context

Set 1, game 3: A 17-point game with six deuces went Mert Alkaya's way.
Set 1, game 3: Mert Alkaya saved three break points to hold serve.
Pressure points: Mert Alkaya converted 0 of 0 break points; Pierre Hugues Herbert converted 1 of 5 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:21 UTC

Alkaya M.26%

Herbert P.74%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Herbert P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Alkaya M.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Herbert P.

5.7

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.5Grass Elo 1423

Surface ELO

6.5+122 Grass Elo edge

3.2Overall Elo 1446

ELO gap

6.8Overall Elo 1591

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

Surface form

5.46 of last 10 on grass

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached qualifying here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Alkaya M.

6⁷40

Herbert P.

7⁹62