Marin Cilic vs Pablo Carreno BustaGirona CH Quarter-final

Girona CH · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#88ATP
1800ELO
1701Clay ELO
$776kYTD
$33MCAREER
37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 24 March 2025
clay
#65ATP
1801ELO
1767Clay ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Cilic M.
6-2 6-4
Carreno Busta P.
Cilic M.
662
Carreno Busta P.
240

Marin Cilic defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-2 6-4 in the Girona CH quarter-final on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Pablo Carreno Busta came in ranked #65. Marin Cilic extended the head-to-head to 6–1.

Key context

Head to head

51
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-11-23Davis Cup Finals QF: CRO vs ESPRRhardMarin Cilic5-7 6-3 7-6(5)
2021-07-24Tokyo OlympicsR32hardPablo Carreno Busta5-7 6-4 6-4
2018-08-13Cincinnati MastersQFhardMarin Cilic7-6(7) 6-4
2018-05-14Rome MastersQFclayMarin Cilic6-3 6-3
2018-01-15Australian OpenR16hardMarin Cilic6-7(2) 6-3 7-6(0) 7-6(3)
2016-10-24BaselR16hardMarin Cilic6-0 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Cilic M.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving82% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Cilic M.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
52%
Service points won·Even
67%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
35%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
69%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
9.3
3.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (64 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
76
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Clear edge
41
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
94
80
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.0Clay Elo 1701
Surface ELO
5.0+65 Clay Elo edge
5.7Overall Elo 1800
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.2
Surface form
3.1
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
9.1
Minutes 14d
9.1
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
100
94

Cilic M.: 15 days rest · Carreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast