Pablo Carreno Busta vs Marin Cilic — Tokyo Olympics Round of 32

Tokyo Olympics · ATP · Round of 32
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP6
Pablo Carreno Busta
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 24 July 2021
hard
Marin Cilic
CRO
Marin Cilic
#62ATP
1800ELO
1762Hard ELO
$776kYTD
$33MCAREER
37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWL
Carreno Busta P.
5-7 6-4 6-4
Cilic M.
Carreno Busta P.
5662
Cilic M.
7441

Pablo Carreno Busta defeated Marin Cilic 5-7 6-4 6-4 in the Tokyo Olympics round of 32 on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Marin Cilic came in ranked #62, leading the head-to-head 5–0, but Pablo Carreno Busta had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Pablo Carreno Busta claimed a first win over Marin Cilic in six meetings, narrowing the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

0–5
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2022-11-23Davis Cup Finals QF: CRO vs ESPRRhardMarin Cilic5-7 6-3 7-6(5)
2018-08-13Cincinnati MastersQFhardMarin Cilic7-6(7) 6-4
2018-05-14Rome MastersQFclayMarin Cilic6-3 6-3
2018-01-15Australian OpenR16hardMarin Cilic6-7(2) 6-3 7-6(0) 7-6(3)
2016-10-24BaselR16hardMarin Cilic6-0 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Carreno Busta P.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Cilic M.

Cilic M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Carreno Busta P.Cilic M.
21
Serve
57
44
Return
10

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Carreno Busta P.Cilic M.
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
70%
78%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
66%
Return points won·Even
38%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.6
10.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.9
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (197 vs 192). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Carreno Busta P.Cilic M.
Clutch Rating·Even
78
76
Break points saved·Even
97
99
Break points won·Clear edge
61
41
Deciding sets·Clear edge
80
94
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
95
87

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Carreno Busta P.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Cilic M.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 26 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
4.4Hard Elo 1744
Surface ELO
5.6+18 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1801
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1800
0.0
H2H
10.0
5.7
Surface form
5.7
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
6.1
Minutes 14d
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
6.0
Surface transition
7.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Carreno Busta P.Cilic M.
Freshness·Slight edge
90
98

Carreno Busta P.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Cilic M.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Draw

Bronze
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Djokovic N.[1]
6-46-766-3
Final
Zverev A.[4]
Khachanov K.[12]
6-36-1
Semi-finals
Khachanov K.[12]
Carreno Busta P.[6]
6-36-3
Zverev A.[4]
Djokovic N.[1]
1-66-36-1
Quarter-finals
Khachanov K.[12]
Humbert U.[14]
7-644-66-3
Zverev A.[4]
Chardy J.
6-46-1
Djokovic N.[1]
Nishikori K.
6-26-0
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Medvedev D.[2]
6-27-65
R16
Khachanov K.[12]
Schwartzman D.[8]
6-12-66-1
Chardy J.
Broady L.
7-634-66-1
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Koepfer D.
7-676-3
Zverev A.[4]
Basilashvili N.
6-47-65
Humbert U.[14]
Tsitsipas S.[3]
2-67-646-2
Medvedev D.[2]
Fognini F.[15]
6-23-66-2
Djokovic N.[1]
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
6-36-1
Nishikori K.
Ivashka I.
7-676-0
R32
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
Millman J.
6-46-746-3
Schwartzman D.[8]
Machac T.
6-47-5
Broady L.
Hurkacz H.[7]
7-53-66-3
Nishikori K.
Giron M.
7-653-66-1
Koepfer D.
Purcell M.
6-36-0
Ivashka I.
Kukushkin M.
6-746-36-3
Fognini F.[15]
Gerasimov E.
6-47-64
Humbert U.[14]
Kecmanovic M.
4-67-657-5
Basilashvili N.
Sonego L.[13]
6-43-66-4
Khachanov K.[12]
Duckworth J.
7-56-1
Chardy J.
Karatsev A.[11]
7-54-66-3
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Cilic M.
5-76-46-4
Zverev A.[4]
Galan D.
6-26-2
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Tiafoe F.
6-36-4
Medvedev D.[2]
Nagal S.
6-26-1
Djokovic N.[1]
Struff J.
6-46-3
R64
Broady L.
Cerundolo F.
7-56-746-2
Medvedev D.[2]
Bublik A.
6-47-68
Djokovic N.[1]
Dellien H.
6-26-2
Millman J.
Musetti L.
6-36-4
Tiafoe F.
Kwon S.
6-36-2
Struff J.
Monteiro T.
6-36-4
Nagal S.
Istomin D.
6-46-766-4
Gerasimov E.
Simon G.
4-66-36-4
Machac T.
Sousa J.
6-756-46-4
Kukushkin M.
Coria F.
7-647-5
Galan D.
Safwat M.
7-56-1
Koepfer D.
Bagnis F.
3-66-37-5
Kecmanovic M.
Majchrzak K.
6-46-2
Duckworth J.
Klein L.
5-76-37-64
Chardy J.
Barrios Vera T.
6-17-64
Basilashvili N.
Carballes Baena R.
6-36-2
Fognini F.[15]
Sugita Y.
6-46-3
Humbert U.[14]
Andujar P.
7-636-1
Sonego L.[13]
Daniel T.
4-67-667-63
Khachanov K.[12]
Nishioka Y.
3-66-16-2
Karatsev A.[11]
Paul T.
6-36-2
Ivashka I.
Monfils G.[10]
6-44-67-5
Purcell M.
Auger Aliassime F.[9]
6-47-62
Schwartzman D.[8]
Varillas J.
7-56-4
Hurkacz H.[7]
Saville L.
6-26-4
Nishikori K.
Rublev A.[5]
6-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[3]
Kohlschreiber P.
6-33-66-3
Giron M.
Gombos N.
7-643-66-2
Cilic M.
Menezes J.
6-757-57-67
Zverev A.[4]
Lu Y.
6-16-3
Davidovich Fokina A.[16]
Sousa P.
6-36-0
Carreno Busta P.[6]
Sandgren T.
7-56-2