Marin Cilic vs Pablo Carreno BustaDavis Cup Finals QF: CRO vs ESP Round Robin

Davis Cup Finals QF: CRO vs ESP · ATP · Round Robin
#88ATP
1800ELO
1762Hard ELO
$776kYTD
$33MCAREER
37 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLLLWL
2 — 1
Sets
Wednesday, 23 November 2022
hard
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Cilic M.
5-7 6-3 7-6
Carreno Busta P.
Cilic M.
56772
Carreno Busta P.
73651

Marin Cilic defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 5-7 6-3 7-6 in the Davis Cup Finals QF: CRO vs ESP round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Marin Cilic came in leading the head-to-head 4–1. Marin Cilic extended the head-to-head to 5–1.

Key context

Head to head

41
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2021-07-24Tokyo OlympicsR32hardPablo Carreno Busta5-7 6-4 6-4
2018-08-13Cincinnati MastersQFhardMarin Cilic7-6(7) 6-4
2018-05-14Rome MastersQFclayMarin Cilic6-3 6-3
2018-01-15Australian OpenR16hardMarin Cilic6-7(2) 6-3 7-6(0) 7-6(3)
2016-10-24BaselR16hardMarin Cilic6-0 7-6(4)

Serve vs return

This season
Cilic M.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Cilic M.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Cilic M.Carreno Busta P.
57
Serve
21
10
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
70%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
53%
Service points won·Even
67%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
39%
Break points saved·Slight edge
67%
61%
Aces / match·Dominant
10.5
3.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.2
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (138 vs 184). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
76
78
Break points saved·Even
99
97
Break points won·Clear edge
41
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
94
80
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 23 days (−0.3)
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 23 days (−0.3)
Form & Matchup
5.6+18 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Hard Elo 1744
5.7Overall Elo 1800
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1801
0.0
H2H
10.0
4.4
Surface form
6.3
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
98
92

Cilic M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About