Alexander Bublik vs Andrey RublevDubai Semi-final

Dubai · ATP · Semi-final
#11ATP
1889ELO
1837Hard ELO
$1.2MYTD
$12MCAREER
29 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 26 February 2024
hard
#13ATP
1902ELO
1849Hard ELO
$1.6MYTD
$34MCAREER
28 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWWLWWW
Bublik A.
6-7 7-6 6-5
Rublev A.
Bublik A.
647762
Rublev A.
776551

Alexander Bublik defeated Andrey Rublev 6-7 7-6 6-5 in the Dubai semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Andrey Rublev came in leading the head-to-head 5–3, defending last year's final. Alexander Bublik narrowed the head-to-head to 5–4.

Key context

Head to head

35
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-04-23Madrid MastersR32clayAlexander Bublik6-4 0-6 6-4
2025-02-17DohaR32hardAndrey Rublev6-3 6-4
2023-07-03WimbledonR16grassAndrey Rublev7-5 6-3 6-7(6) 6-7(5) 6-4
2023-06-19HalleFgrassAlexander Bublik6-3 3-6 6-3
2020-02-10RotterdamR16hardAndrey Rublev7-5 6-3
2019-10-21ViennaR32hardAndrey Rublev6-1 6-7(3) 7-6(6)
2019-10-14MoscowR32hardAndrey Rublev6-1 3-6 6-4
2016-10-17MoscowQ1hardAlexander Bublik6-4 7-6(10)

Serve vs return

This season
Bublik A.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Rublev A.

Rublev A.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Bublik A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bublik A.Rublev A.
65
Serve
55
25
Return
52

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
62%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
76%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
65%
67%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Even
65%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.0
7.9
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.2
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (140 vs 150). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
88
89
Break points saved·Even
99
100
Break points won·Slight edge
67
72
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Even
96
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2Hard Elo 1837
Surface ELO
4.8+12 Hard Elo edge
5.5Overall Elo 1889
ELO gap
4.5Overall Elo 1902
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.7
Surface form
6.6
Fatigue & Travel
6.1
Minutes 14d
4.6
7.0
3-set count
4.0
7.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
6.0
Defending pts

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
66
93

Bublik A.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 88 games (7d) · Rublev A.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
23°CClear
Wind 27 km/hHumidity 67%