Upset Audit

WTA Tour US Open 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of WTA Tour US Open 2026 in New York, United States, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Putintseva Y.def.Bencic B.

WTA Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1284-6 7-5 6-3

Pre-match WP: Putintseva Y. 17% · Bencic B. 83%

83

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Zheng Q.def.Swiatek I.

WTA Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 167-5 6-3

Pre-match WP: Zheng Q. 23% · Swiatek I. 77%

77

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Rakhimova K.def.Krejcikova B.

WTA Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1287-6(4) 6-2

Pre-match WP: Rakhimova K. 24% · Krejcikova B. 76%

76

Umpiry
Surprise Score

4

Potapova A.def.Anisimova A.

WTA Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 326-2 7-5

Pre-match WP: Potapova A. 25% · Anisimova A. 75%

75

Umpiry
Surprise Score

5

Maria T.def.Ostapenko J.

WTA Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1284-6 6-1 6-2

Pre-match WP: Maria T. 26% · Ostapenko J. 74%

74

Umpiry
Surprise Score

6

Navarro E.def.Muchova K.

WTA Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 326-3 7-5

Pre-match WP: Navarro E. 28% · Muchova K. 72%

72

Umpiry
Surprise Score

7

Stephens S.def.Tauson C.

WTA Tour US Open 2026 — Round of 1286-4 6-1

Pre-match WP: Stephens S. 29% · Tauson C. 71%

71

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.