Lorenzo Musetti vs Ugo Humbert | Stockholm Quarter-final

UMPIRY

StockholmQuarter-finalHardThu 12 Nov · ~20:00CENTER COURT · After 3 matches

Lorenzo Musetti(3)ATP #25 · ITA70%

VSClear favourite · Musetti L.

Ugo Humbert(7)ATP #39 · FRA30%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Musetti L.

70%30%

Clear edge for Musetti L. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Musetti L.6.6/10

Marginal edge

Humbert U.5.5/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+40 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Humbert U.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1869Informative

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Humbert U.

This eventReached the final here last yearAgainst the prediction · Humbert U.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO2 104

Hard ELO1 904

Last 108–2

Age24

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $15.6M2026 $1.3M

ELO1 957

Hard ELO1 859

Last 104–6

Age28

Height188 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $11.8M2026 $1.4M

Lorenzo Musetti faces Ugo Humbert in the Stockholm quarter-final on hard. Lorenzo Musetti brings the better recent hard form (4 of 6).

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Lorenzo Musetti has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 88 vs 37).
Freshness: Lorenzo Musetti comes in with 2 days of rest and 127 games in 14d, vs Ugo Humbert's 1 and 97.
Last match: Lorenzo Musetti dropped just 5 games past Toby Samuel.

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Musetti L. and Humbert U. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Musetti L. went 2–2 (50%) against them, Humbert U. 0–4 (0%). Musetti L. came out better against 2 of 4 comparable opponents, Humbert U. against 0.

2–250%Musetti L. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents0–40%Humbert U. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

6–3Sets2–8

44–36Games42–57

1–0Tiebreaks0–0

0–0Deciding sets0–2

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Djokovic N.#12L6-4 6-3 1-3Australian Open · hardL6-4 3-6 4-6Basel · hard
vs Lehecka J.#15L3-6 3-6Madrid Masters · clayL7-5 4-6 4-6Tokyo · hard
vs Cerundolo F.#20W7-6 6-4Rome Masters · clayL4-6 3-6Miami Masters · hard

Show 1 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Zheng M.#100W6-1 6-3Cincinnati · hardL4-6 3-6Cincinnati · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Musetti L.Humbert U.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–24–6

Season win rate67% (29–14)54% (30–26)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21041957

Hard-court ELO19041859

Serve vs returnLast 43 vs 56 matches

1st-serve points won71%76%

Return points won38%35%

Aces / match4.37.3

ClutchLast 43 vs 56 matches

Break points saved66%66%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 3 matches · Followed by

1Michelsen A. v Tabilo A.Starts at 13:00
2Tirante T. v Shevchenko A.Not before 15:00
3Fritz T. v Rune H.Not before 18:30
4This match: Musetti L. v Humbert U.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · ~20:00 local

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast4°C · Partly cloudy

Wind2 km/h

Humidity92%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Musetti L.Humbert U.

2Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days2

48Games · 7 days37

5Matches · 14 days4

127Games · 14 days97

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Lorenzo Musetti vs Ugo Humbert — Stockholm Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-12/humbert-vs-musetti-stockholm-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 12 November 2026).