UMPIRY
EN

Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR64HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Khachanov K.
38%62%

Khachanov K. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Shapovalov D.6.1/10
Even match
Khachanov K.6.2/10
Even match
Why
Surface+8 Hard Elo edgeSupports Khachanov K.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1828Supports Khachanov K.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardInformative
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Shapovalov D.
ELO1 952
Hard ELO1 878
Last 106–4
Age27
Height185 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $15.5M2026 $995K
ELO2 045
Hard ELO1 894
Last 106–4
Age30
Height198 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $23.5M2026 $1.4M

Denis Shapovalov faces Karen Khachanov in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 64 on hard. Karen Khachanov is the paper favourite — ranked #24 — but Denis Shapovalov has won both their previous meetings. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

7 shared · last 12 months

Shapovalov D. and Khachanov K. faced 7 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Shapovalov D. went 2–6 (25%) against them, Khachanov K. 4–3 (57%). Khachanov K. came out better against 3 of 7 comparable opponents, Shapovalov D. against 0 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

2–625%Shapovalov D. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents4–357%Khachanov K. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
6–13Sets9–7
83–97Games82–71
1–2Tiebreaks0–2
1–2Deciding sets1–0
Show 4 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Shapovalov D. leads 2–0
20

Grass: Shapovalov D. leads 1–0 · Hard: Shapovalov D. leads 1–0

Evidence

Shapovalov D.Khachanov K.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate52% (22–20)53% (27–24) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19522045 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18781894 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 37 vs 49 matches
1st-serve points won73%75% (ahead)
Return points won36%36%
Aces / match8.18.1
ClutchLast 37 vs 49 matches
Break points saved58%70% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast9°C · Partly cloudy
Wind8 km/h
Humidity80%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Shapovalov D.Khachanov K.
3Days since last match5 — fresher
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
37Games · 7 days23 — fresher
2 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
37 — fresherGames · 14 days108
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Denis Shapovalov vs Karen Khachanov — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/khachanov-vs-shapovalov-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).