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Sorana Cirstea vs Maria Timofeeva — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 32

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong KongR32HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Cirstea S.
62%38%

Cirstea S. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Cirstea S.6.8/10
Slight advantage
Timofeeva M.5.5/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+307 Hard Elo edgeSupports Cirstea S.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1956Supports Cirstea S.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Cirstea S.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
ELO2 022
Hard ELO1 879
Last 105–5
Age36
Height176 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $13.1M2026 $2.3M
ELO1 820
Hard ELO1 676
Last 107–3
Age22
Height167 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $1.2M2026 $377K

Sorana Cirstea faces Maria Timofeeva in the Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong round of 32 on hard. Sorana Cirstea is the paper favourite — ranked #16, a roughly 310-point hard Elo advantage — but Maria Timofeeva arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Sorana Cirstea's 5 of 10.

Key context

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

Cirstea S. and Timofeeva M. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Cirstea S. went 7–2 (78%) against them, Timofeeva M. 4–5 (44%). Cirstea S. came out better against 3 of 8 comparable opponents, Timofeeva M. against 0 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

7–278%Cirstea S. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents4–544%Timofeeva M. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
14–4Sets10–11
101–69Games84–97
2–1Tiebreaks1–1
0–1Deciding sets1–2
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Cirstea S.Timofeeva M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate69% (40–18) (ahead)66% (39–20)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2022 (ahead)1820
Hard-court ELO1879 (ahead)1676
Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 58 matches
1st-serve points won68% (ahead)62%
Return points won46%48% (ahead)
Aces / match4.1 (ahead)1.9
ClutchLast 56 vs 58 matches
Break points saved56%57% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast28°C · Drizzle
Wind10 km/h
Humidity67%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Cirstea S.Timofeeva M.
5 — fresherDays since last match3
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days2
22 — fresherGames · 7 days49
3Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
62Games · 14 days49 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sorana Cirstea vs Maria Timofeeva — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/cirstea-vs-timofeeva-hong-kong-tennis-open-hong-kong-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).