Shuai Zhang vs Maria TimofeevaMonterrey Round of 32

Monterrey · WTA · Round of 32
#53WTA
1718ELO
1695Hard ELO
37 yrs · 177 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLLWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 26 August 2026 ·
hard
#92WTA
1696ELO
1608Hard ELO
22 yrs · 167 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLLWW
Zhang S.
1-6 3-6
Timofeeva M.
Zhang S.
130
Timofeeva M.
662

Maria Timofeeva defeated Shuai Zhang in the Round of 32 of the Monterrey tournament on hard courts. The match ended with a score of 1-6, 3-6 in favor of Timofeeva. Key stats included Timofeeva's 4 aces and 83% first-serve win percentage, compared to Zhang's 0 aces and 49% first-serve win percentage.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
46%
47%
Service points won·Even
56%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
43%
49%
Break points saved·Even
58%
55%
Aces / match·Even
2.2
1.9
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
46
54
Break points saved·Dominant
12
76
Break points won·Slight edge
90
96
Deciding sets·Even
59
59
Tiebreaks·Dominant
78
20

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Zhang S.46%
Timofeeva M.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.1+87 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.9Hard Elo 1608
5.3Overall Elo 1718
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1696
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.14 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
89
73

Zhang S.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d) · Timofeeva M.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 81 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
36°CClear
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 31%

Draw