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Arthur Rinderknech vs Francisco Cerundolo — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64

Rolex Paris Masters - ParisR64HardMon 2 Nov · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Cerundolo F.
40%60%

Cerundolo F. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Rinderknech A.5.2/10
Clear underdog
Cerundolo F.6.5/10
Marginal edge
Why
Surface+132 Hard Elo edgeSupports Cerundolo F.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1931Supports Cerundolo F.
Recent runLost last 4Informative
Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardInformative
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Rinderknech A.
ELO1 958
Hard ELO1 815
Last 104–6
Age31
Height196 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $7.6M2026 $1.3M
ELO2 037
Hard ELO1 878
Last 105–5
Age28
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $11.8M2026 $2.9M

Arthur Rinderknech faces Francisco Cerundolo in the Rolex Paris Masters - Paris round of 64 on hard. Francisco Cerundolo is the paper favourite — ranked #19, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage — but Arthur Rinderknech has won both their previous meetings. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Rinderknech A. and Cerundolo F. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Rinderknech A. went 2–3 (40%) against them, Cerundolo F. 4–2 (67%). Cerundolo F. came out better against 3 of 5 comparable opponents, Rinderknech A. against 1.

2–340%Rinderknech A. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents4–267%Cerundolo F. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
8–7Sets8–7
81–78Games78–75
2–1Tiebreaks1–2
0–2Deciding sets2–0
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Head-to-head

2 meetings · Rinderknech A. leads 2–0
20

Evidence

Rinderknech A.Cerundolo F.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–65–5 (ahead)
Season win rate44% (19–24)62% (37–23) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO19582037 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO18151878 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 38 vs 56 matches
1st-serve points won78% (ahead)71%
Return points won33%40% (ahead)
Aces / match12.8 (ahead)4.2
ClutchLast 38 vs 56 matches
Break points saved69% (ahead)63%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast9°C · Partly cloudy
Wind8 km/h
Humidity80%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Rinderknech A.Cerundolo F.
5Days since last match5
1Matches · 7 days1
23Games · 7 days17 — fresher
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
23 — fresherGames · 14 days88
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Arthur Rinderknech vs Francisco Cerundolo — Rolex Paris Masters - Paris Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-02/cerundolo-vs-rinderknech-rolex-paris-masters-paris-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 2 November 2026).