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Katerina Siniakova vs Peyton Stearns — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32

Japan Open - OsakaR32HardMon 19 Oct · 11:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Siniakova K.5.9/10
Even match
Stearns P.5.6/10
Slight disadvantage
Why
Surface+52 Hard Elo edgeSupports Siniakova K.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1846Supports Siniakova K.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Siniakova K.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 893
Hard ELO1 757
Last 104–6
Age30
Height174 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $18.2M2026 $3.3M
ELO1 841
Hard ELO1 705
Last 105–5
Age25
Height173 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $4.5M2026 $1.3M

Katerina Siniakova faces Peyton Stearns in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 32 on hard. Peyton Stearns holds the paper edge — ranked #37. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Katerina Siniakova ahead 1–0 on hard.

Key context

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

Siniakova K. and Stearns P. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Siniakova K. went 4–5 (44%) against them, Stearns P. 4–6 (40%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).

4–544%Siniakova K. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents4–640%Stearns P. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
9–11Sets12–12
82–94Games114–108
0–0Tiebreaks1–1
1–1Deciding sets0–4
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Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1
11

Hard: Siniakova K. leads 1–0 · Clay: Stearns P. leads 1–0

Evidence

Siniakova K.Stearns P.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–65–5 (ahead)
Season win rate46% (17–20)52% (25–23) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1893 (ahead)1841
Hard-court ELO1757 (ahead)1705
Serve vs returnLast 36 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won63%66% (ahead)
Return points won43%43%
Aces / match1.84.1 (ahead)
ClutchLast 36 vs 47 matches
Break points saved59% (ahead)54%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast24°C · Mainly clear
Wind2 km/h
Humidity68%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Siniakova K.Stearns P.
5Days since last match8 — fresher
1Matches · 7 days0 — fresher
27Games · 7 days0 — fresher
1Matches · 14 days1
27 — fresherGames · 14 days30
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Katerina Siniakova vs Peyton Stearns — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/siniakova-vs-stearns-japan-open-osaka-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).