Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren | Olbia Round of 32

UMPIRY

OlbiaR32HardTue 13 Oct · ~15:30CLOTO ARENA · After 3 matches

Luca NardiATP #251 · ITA57%

VSToss-up

August HolmgrenATP #236 · DEN43%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

57%43%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Nardi L.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Holmgren A.5.3/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+55 Hard Elo edgeSupports Nardi L.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1585Supports Nardi L.

Recent runLost last 4Informative

Head-to-headLeads 2–0 on hardSupports Nardi L.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Nardi L.

ELO1 753

Hard ELO1 650

Last 103–7

Age23

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.4M2026 $256K

ELO1 741

Hard ELO1 616

Last 103–7

Age28

Height188 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $700K2026 $183K

Luca Nardi faces August Holmgren in the Olbia round of 32 on hard. Luca Nardi holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Luca Nardi 20 games in 14 days, August Holmgren 74.
Under pressure: August Holmgren has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 43 vs Luca Nardi's 4).
Head-to-head: Luca Nardi leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at Helsinki CH 2024.

Common opponents

2 shared · last 12 months

Nardi L. and Holmgren A. faced 2 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Nardi L. went 0–2 (0%) against them, Holmgren A. 1–1 (50%).

0–20%Nardi L. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–150%Holmgren A. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

0–4Sets2–2

17–25Games18–20

0–1Tiebreaks1–0

0–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 2 common opponents — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

vs Virtanen O.#107L4-6 4-6Wimbledon · grassW6-2Roland Garros · clay
vs Guerrieri A.#165L3-6 6-7Umag · clayL3-6 7-6(4) 2-6US Open · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Nardi L. leads 2–0

Nardi L.November 2024Helsinki CHHard7-6 7-6
Nardi L.November 2023Kobe CHHard6-3 3-6 7-5

Evidence

Nardi L.Holmgren A.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss3–73–7

Season win rate44% (14–18)48% (29–31)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO17531741

Hard-court ELO16501616

Serve vs returnLast 22 vs 40 matches

1st-serve points won68%75%

Return points won38%34%

Aces / match4.77.7

ClutchLast 22 vs 40 matches

Break points saved64%66%

When it starts

CLOTO ARENA · After 3 matches · Followed by

1Pieri S. v Rincon D.Starts at 10:00
2Travaglia S. v Durasovic V.Not before 12:30
3Dougaz A. v Dzumhur D.Followed by
4This match: Nardi L. v Holmgren A.This match
5Poljicak M. v Maestrelli F.Not before 17:00

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CLOTO ARENA · ~15:30 local

SurfaceHard · medium-slow

Forecast24°C · Clear

Wind11 km/h

Humidity34%

Court pace medium-slow: favours grinders.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Nardi L.Holmgren A.

8Days since last match7

0Matches · 7 days1

0Games · 7 days33

1Matches · 14 days3

20Games · 14 days74

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Luca Nardi vs August Holmgren — Olbia Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-13/holmgren-vs-nardi-olbia-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 13 October 2026).